Vietnam is poised to see an uptick in the value of its rice exports in the final months of 2026, spurred by a recovery in international prices and increased demand in key markets. As of mid-August, the country had exported around 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with total yearly shipments expected to reach about 7.7 million tonnes. While export earnings are anticipated to be around US$3.9 billion—approximately 4% less than the previous year due to weak prices in the first half of the year—the situation is changing. Rice prices began to rise in July, showing a 5.8% increase from the previous year, and if this trend holds, Vietnam could see improved export revenues as the year closes.
Global factors may also bolster Vietnam’s rice exports. The 2026-27 crop year is projected to experience a supply-demand gap, and global trade could hit record levels. Additionally, fears of a strong El Niño may drive countries to boost their food reserves. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice export market, is set to continue importing to bolster its reserves, with expected imports of about 5.6 million tonnes in the coming crop year. Meanwhile, China is ramping up imports, particularly of broken rice used for animal feed, presenting further opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Opportunities for growth also lie in other markets. Nigeria is projected to encounter a significant rice supply shortfall, and Kenya has temporarily lifted import duties on white rice under a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are tapping into premium markets as well, with high-quality, low-emission certified rice fetching prices of more than US$1,000 per tonne in regions like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Nevertheless, Vietnam’s rice industry faces several hurdles. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice imports from Vietnam and other major suppliers, which could increase tariffs beyond 35% and impact Vietnamese exports to its primary market. Indonesia is unlikely to import rice this year due to robust domestic production and ample reserves. Furthermore, Vietnamese rice competes with Indian and Pakistani products in several African markets. Thailand is making strides in China, and Cambodia is increasing its fragrant rice exports, intensifying competition for Vietnamese exporters.
Compounding these challenges are high costs for fertilizers, transportation, and energy, which strain both farmers and exporters. An anticipated El Niño could also bring drought and saltwater intrusion from late 2026 to early 2027, potentially impacting the next winter-spring rice crop. Despite these risks, the combination of rising prices, stronger demand, and interest in premium rice offers a promising outlook for Vietnam’s export earnings as the year ends, though tariffs, competition, and weather-related challenges remain significant concerns.