The United States moved quickly to reassure global oil markets following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader and a sharp escalation in Middle East hostilities. Washington pledged not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, seeking to prevent a catastrophic price spiral after the IRGC threatened that oil could exceed $200 a barrel if Israeli attacks on Iranian oil sites continued. The pledge came amid some of the most intense fighting the region has seen in years.
Mojtaba Khamenei, confirmed as Iran’s new supreme leader on Sunday by the Assembly of Experts, is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US-Israeli strike on February 28. The 56-year-old cleric’s appointment is the first time leadership of the Islamic Republic has passed from father to son, marking a historically significant moment in the country’s post-revolutionary political life.
Israel launched strikes on multiple energy sites in and around Tehran, sending thick black smoke billowing over the capital. Israel also hit Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Iranian forces responded by attacking Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE all reported incidents. A residential area in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia was struck, killing two people and injuring twelve. Saudi defense systems shot down at least 15 Iranian drones.
The threat of a global energy crisis has added a new dimension to the conflict. Iran is a significant oil producer, and the combination of strikes on its facilities and Iranian threats to disrupt Gulf supplies has unnerved energy markets. Several major oil-importing economies have begun contingency planning. The US pledge not to target Iranian energy infrastructure was aimed at de-escalating the financial dimension of the conflict, though analysts noted it did nothing to stop Israeli operations.
Mojtaba Khamenei leads Iran during a moment when every decision carries enormous consequences. His ability to manage the military situation, prevent economic collapse, and maintain internal cohesion will determine whether the Islamic Republic emerges from this conflict diminished or — against all odds — strengthened. The international community is watching with a mixture of anxiety and uncertainty.